Pound Sell Off Continues


 

Currency Market News on Falling Sterling, UK House Prices and The Greek Situation

26, February 2010

Let us start with the good news from the UK economy before we dive into the bad and the ugly. UK CBI distributive trades showed a good rise in the number of retailers expecting an increase in sales. The number was up from -8 to +23. John Lewis says weekly department sales up 15.1% so good feedback there.

UK GDP revision for the fourth quarter came in at 0.3% and upward revision from 0.1%- better than expected. The pound sell off continues but why has the pound dropped further?

I was bemused on the fall in the pound following the upward revision. I can only attribute it to speculators thinking the data would be stronger than 0.3% and buying the rumour and then selling the fact. Sterling has had a mini run lower over the last week falling 3% against the euro, 2% against the USD and 4% on the Yen.

Mixed economic data will not be helping, particularly UK investment data which was appalling, dropping 5.8% in the last quarter to leave the year on year figure down a whopping 24.1%. In addition Nationwide house price data came in weaker than expected at -1.0% much weaker than the forecasted +0.4%.

News from Greece continued to spread fears of contagion through Europe. The talk of a possible downgrade of the Greek sovereign rating, along with their onerous funding programme, provoked a surge in the country’s bond yields as well as comments from other European worthies.

Remember that a downgrade from current levels would remove Greece’s ability to enter into repurchase agreements with the ECB using their bonds thus cutting off access to the underlying cheap funding. The Greek PM is talking tough stating that those responsible for the crisis must pay and now is the time for decisions and actions for the country.

The mood of fear is still driving the USD and JPY higher.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Forex Set and Forget Automated Forex Trading Robot


 

25th, February 2010,

Using a forex set and forget automated trading robot has definitely been a blessing and the way to go for many traders worldwide. Understandably. They save time, money and effort. Quite simply they take a lot of the sweat out of trading.

There are many types on the market and by putting yours on a Metatrader chart you can turn it on and leave it to go to work for you. With a good quality Forex trading robot you can literally set it and forget it for years at a time if you please with no worries.

You may have tried trading robots in the past and been unsuccessful. Some only work under special circumsytances and become outdated but do not let that put you off because the potential gains far outweigh the occassional set backs. Let’s face it we have all had a few of those.

I am not taken in by the hype of the products that are in the market place. I look for simplicity in working and something that is robust in its operation. When I discovered this tool I was pretty excited because of the safeguards and scope it has.

For instance, can your present robot…

  • Tell you if you try to trade with too much risk?
  • Automatically adjust for 4-digit and 5-digit accounts?
  • Automatically adjust for standard or mini lots?
  • Automatically adjust for ECN or Standard brokers?

This Forex Set and Forget Automated Forex Trading Robot Does

Good Trading,

Tom

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Gold Market Chart Analysis Using Donchian Channel Application


 

25th, February 2010

From special guest blogger, Adam Hewison.

It’s been about eight days since we did a video with the gold market chart analysis. Given the market action today I thought I would look at what is causing the downward pressure in this market.

If you did not watch my last video on gold, I strongly recommend you click here to watch the video titled “Five Reasons Why Gold Will Not Make a New High This Time” as it will give you a bigger picture of how we see this market playing out in the next 12 months.

In today’s short video we look at an indicator that we have not talked about before in any of our videos. The indicator, which is an overlay on top of the chart, is called the Donchian Channel System.

Richard Donchian, who has since passed away, came up with this indicator in the late ’40s. The reason why I like this indicator is the fact that it has successfully stood the test of time. I think you’ll really enjoy seeing how it can help you make money in the gold market.

Also in this video, I point out one very important cycle that is in play now and where I think the next tradable low is coming into this market.

Good Trading,

Tom

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir


The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

US To Maintain Low Interest Rates World


 

Currency Market News on US Interest Rates, The Yen and Obama’s Big Day

25, February 2010

The US to maintain low interest rates world. This was definitely not a surprise but the markets appreciated the affirmation from the Fed which removes any potential near term surprises from the federal reserve interest rates. Equities picked up on the news but risk appetitie is far from returning.

Europe came back to the fore and this morning the markets are in a tailspin of fear again as the threat of a sovereign downgrade looms over Greece. This opens up the possibilty of Grrek bonds being illegible with the ECB, making it more difficult to borrow.

On top of this the war of words will not be helping the euro…hot topics have included the war and Italian book fixing; not good PR for the euro. The Yen is flying in the markets today and has pushed below 89.50 against the USD and pushed GBP down to 136.82 as we stand. The Yen is being favoured as a safe haven after recent strong economic data.

The USD has also experienced gains again today with EUR/USD dropping as low as 1.3449 and GBP/USD to 1.5270 a new 9 month low. Big day tomorrow for sterling in the revision of the Q4 2009 GDP It is expected that it will be revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%- we need as expected or better to stave off further sterling selling.

Today’s important world event is Obama’s meeting with both Democrat and Republican law-makers in the US to try and find a way to move forward on the introduction of legislation of the US healthcare system. The most expensive by a long way, in terms of % of GDP, in the world. Very important that the US move forward on this project and politically vital for Obama.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Set and Forget Automated Forex Trading


 

25, February 2010

Set and forget automated forex trading has been long a dream for many traders, from the beginning of these kind of markets, to predict what happens next with a currency price. This means, having a system that would tell us what time and at what price to enter our trades in a mechanical way.

Here is a simple set and forget system that takes the sweat and worries away from your trading sessions. There is nothing 100 percent accurate among trading systems, that’s for sure, but this set and forget automated forex trading system has showed that even without perfection it can make of you a profitable trader.

This fully automated forex trading system needs no manual intervention and most importantly, the two basic principles that have worked with the markets since trading was born: market timing and smart money management.

This is the is the perfect solution for people with full time 9-5 jobs and busy lives as there is no need to watch the market day and night. Just- set and forget, your trade will be done automatically by your trading platform, any platform is fine.

Set and forget trading represents the state of the art in rule based system software. These tools can actually be set in an automatic mode to control trade order entry and execution.  The system must be used with an existing trading platform connected to an online broker.

This system is 100% mechanical and doesn’t need any tech indicators or other tech materials. It can be used by anyone, even beginners. New traders will like the simplicity,  experts will appreciate the ease of use and everyone loves saving time while making money.

Good Trading,

Tom

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Currency Trading Terminology Foreign To You?


 

24, February 2010

If currency trading terminology is foreign to you and you want to become a successful trader then you must learn the language first. I’m often amazed at folks who jump headfirst into the market not understanding this one simple premise. Only when you understand the rhythm and cadence of the different markets can you begin to be successful.

There is a free webinar on Friday where you’ll learn directly from Adam Hewison the methods he uses to succeed in his trading. You’ll be able to interact with MarketClub in way you never were able to before. You’ll have access to Adam and his top support staff. Click here to register for the webinar and receive three (3) bonuses as a thank you!

This week’s weeks webinar, entitled “Beginner’s Trading Terminology” will be great for those of you who are new to trading or interested in beginning but are confused by all of the jargon that gets tossed around. As Adam said in his post earlier today, you have to understand the language of the market before you can understand what it is telling you.

This what Adam posted on The Trader’s Blog today.

See if you can understand what this Geordie says.

“Weh ye buggar mar, ah did’n nah yeh weor wone of the canny lads from the toon? De ye iver sing blaydon races noo and de ye get yeor broon sent ower.”

Translation here:

(Queens English): “Oh what a surprise, I was not aware you were a gentleman from Newcastle upon Tyne. Do you ever sing Blaydon Races now and do you have your Newcastle Brown Ale imported?”

The point of this little exercise is that you need to understand what the market is telling you. In order to do that you must learn the language of the market.

All markets have a rhythm and beat to them. Our mission at MarketClub is to help you understand them. For those of you who are new to this blog, we do that with our “Trade Triangle” technology. This approach has served MarketClub members very well and you can see that in our Saturday Success Stories.

If you’re not familiar with MarketClub, I invite you to attend Friday’s free “Beginner’s Trading Terminology” webinar to further help you understand the language of the market. I hope to see you all in future webinar presentations too!

Space is limited, so click here to register and reserve your seat.

Good Trading,

Tom

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Future webinars to to look out for:

  • March 5th - MarketClub’s World Commodity Portfolio
  • March 12th - How to Get the Most MarketClub’s Alert System

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Silver Better Investment Than Gold?


 

24, February 2010

I kept wondering is silver better investment than gold. Taking a look at all the indicators there is little to be gained from silver right now and gold will be slow to show a return.

After the high price of gold in early December and its subsequent drop a lot of other people wanted to know the answer to that same question. The gold vs silver investment question. At the time, we stated exactly how we felt, in that, why would you try to buy something that is not in the same league as gold? The two markets are completely different and are driven by a different set of emotions and fundamentals.

This first video shows why we are still ambivalent towards silver and it’s an important one for you to see. It will stop you wondering is silver better investment than gold. Taking a look at all the indicators there is little to be gained from silver right now and gold will be slow to show a return.

One of the standout features that I noticed was the fact that when gold was making new all-time highs in early December, silver failed to take out the March 2008 high. I consider this to be a negative.

Gold has made some exciting moves recently, but what can we expect in the future? In this second short video, you will see five reasons why I do not expect gold to make a new high just yet. It is in a fair trading range but no more than that.

If the current cycle persists, there will be some interesting trades to be had in the spot gold market but I wouldn’t expect to be looking for a new high before late next year.

The videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

I hope you enjoy this gold vs  silver investment update.

Good Trading,

Tom.

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

US Consumer Confidence Fragile


 

Currency Market News on US Confidence, the Greece debacle and Ben Bernanke

24, February 2010

Yesterday’s US consumer confidence data came in weaker than expected and highlights the delicate recovery phase for the US economy. This also backs up recent dovish comments from the Fed asserting that interest rates will need to remain low for a prolonged period and that liquidity withdrawal may not be a foregone conclusion.

The data helped to spook the markets and strengthened the natural safe havens of the JPY and USD. The Yen was also lifted on good export data pushing GBP/YEN back below 140.00 and USD/YEN down to 90.00. At the moment for recovery we have an east and west divide with robust recovery coming from China, Malaysia, Hong Kong contrasting the jitters in Europe, the UK and the US. The tide has shifted.

The Greece debacle is still ongoing and Fitch downgraded the 4 largest banks to BBB with a negative outlook to boot. The situation was not helped by a German Lawmaker of the ruling conservative party commenting that Germany must ensure that it does not pay for Greece as it could trigger the demand for more aid. In addition the Czech finance minister said that the Greek pledge to cut the deficit to 3% in 3 years is “nonsense” in his view. No beating around the bush there!

Sterling remains subdued after yesterdays dovish sentiments from the MPC. This was again reiterated in case the markets did not get the message by Mr Posen today who opined that we will keep the door open for more QE- “if we have to we will”. Don’t expect any big moves for sterling today. The tone of the MPC, the deficit and the election is leaving Sterling stuck in the mud at the moment with more rain forecast.

Today we have Ben Bernanke’s testimony to congress on monetary policy. It will be interesting to judge his tone going forward and his feedback as regards the hike in the discount rate.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

UK Debt…Hello, Gordon Bown, Are You Home?


 

Currency Market News on UK Debt, GBP Losses and AUD Gains

22, February 2010

In the last month sterling has lost over 1% against the euro and just under 4% against the USD. The surprising move is the fall against the euro as the Greek fallout has held court in the media for sometime now and yet sterling falls against the euro.

Weaker retail sales and weak business and mortgage lending have compounded the weak sentiment, however the real danger for sterling is the UK deficit. Oh Dear…The economists are arguing with each other on whether to cut now or later.

The common agreement is that cuts are inevitable but when? Economists should focus more on the how and what to cut and the politicians should lay their cards on the table with their full deficit reducing plans outlined now to avoid further uncertainty. The credit agencies want credible plans and not political or economic disagreement.

Lots of politics thrown into the mix over the weekend with news of a narrowing in the polls and Heseltine touting a hung parliament did not dent sterling further. However we can expect the election run up and the focus on the deficit to continue to affect the pound…badly.

Sterling also lost further ground against USD following the Feds decision to increase its discount interest rate by 0.25% on Thursday evening. Some of these gains have been lost after a Fed member underlined the policy to maintain “ultra-low rates for some time” tempering the hawkish sentiment.

The big economic news this week will be revision of Q4 2009 GDP on Friday The markets and sterling will hope to see an upward revision from the 0.1% level. In other news we have the German IFO survey on Wednesday and US revised GDP on Friday. In addition Ben Bernanke is due for his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy on Wednesday.

The AUD is still the darling of the currency markets pushing higher against the USD, EUR and GBP. The fuel behind the surge lies in higher interest rates which could rise further and a strong underlying recovery.

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

USD Shines After Positive Minutes


 

Currency Market News on UK and US Interest Rates and The Beleaguered Euro

18, February 2010

Yesterday the markets digested the minutes of the February interest rate meetings for both the UK and the US. Firstly looking at the UK the vote was a unanimous 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold and also to hold Quantitative Easing at £200 billion.

The feedback from the MPC was ambiguous in the sense that the decision was unanimous and yet the comments were that it was a “finely balanced” decision to keep QE on hold. The unanimous decision gave sterling a boost which was then tempered by weaker than expected employment numbers. Going forward this does not change the sentiment for sterling which will struggle to appreciate until the outlook for the UK warrants a more hawkish approach from the MPC.

Over to the US and the FOMC upgraded their forecasts for the US economy reflecting a more bullish tone from the Fed. They also discussed trying to shrink their reserves over time although no time frame was announced to do this. The positive tone from the Fed with improved economic sentiment in the US coupled with loitering fear in the markets helped to push the USD higher. Japan as expected voted to keep their key overnight rate at 0.1% – no real surprises in the accompanying statement.

The main focus for the currency markets still surrounds the beleaguered euro which is threatening to fall below 1.35 against the USD risking further selling pressure for the single currency. Today data from the UK’s public finances was not pretty and is a further reminder that the UK needs to get its act together…sterling fell on the news unsurprisingly.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

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UK Unemployment Rises Again


 

Currency Market News on UK Jobless Figures, EU Anger at Greece and Market Movement

17, February 2010

Jobless claims were up 23,500 against the expectation of a fall of 10,000 so not good feedback for the employment sector. This data for January was disappointing but not wholly unexpected and simply reinforces the fact that the employment sector remains very sluggish.

Although we may have officially exited the recession on paper the reality is that we still have a long a painful road ahead.

The official unemployment rate remains at 7.8%. In addition to the employment data we also had the minutes from the February interest rate meeting for the UK. The Bank Of England minutes came in 9-0 as expected to keep interest rates and Quantitive Easing (QE) on hold. Although all members voted to leave the size of the asset purchase programme unchanged,it was noted that some members felt the arguments for a further increase were “finely balanced”. This underlies the uncertainty within the MPC on the future impact of the £200 billion already introduced and therefore the MPC will not close the door on further QE if required.

Sterling is likely to remain subdued as the BoE feel that inflation will fall further in 2010 and further expansion of QE is a weapon that they will use again if necessary.

Back to Greece and yesterday it was agreed to give the government time to co-ordinate their future policy on their budget. However there was a clear tone of anger from the EU for the shocking handling of their finances to date and they have until the end of March to come up with some answers. The EU also stripped Greece of its voting rights at next months meeting in an attempt to demonstrate their anger towards Greece.

So although no firm agenda or plan in place the markets have started to feel more comfortable or possibly bored with the affairs in Greece and investors once again started to dip their toes in again. The USD and the JPY weakened in line with a tentative return to risk. GBP/USD pushed back through 1.57 and tested 1.58 in early trading and EUR/USD pushed through 1.37.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Greece Bring EU To Its Knees As Others Celebrate!


 

Currency Market News on the Brussels Meeting, US Retail data and Celbrations!

15, February 2010

EU finance ministers reconvene in Brussels to discuss further details on EU plans for Greece and the next steps. The euro has taken a beating over the past couple of weeks over the wrangling with Greece and ministers need to tread carefully or risk further fear in the markets and selling of the euro.

Aside from this there is very little to focus on today.

Risk appetite remains weak as Greece and other European countries continue to undermine confidence. In addition monetary tightening in China and comments of revaluing the Yuan are adding to the reduced confidence. In relation to the Yuan Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs suggests that China may revalue the Yuan by up to 5%. This may not happen especially during Chinese New Year but it is still a possibility and hence undermining risk.

Better than expected US retail sales data on Friday was at +0.5% for January. It helped to stave off further fear in the markets but was not enough to turn the tide.

Today we have lots of closed markets with a US holiday for President’s day, Family day in Canada and the Chinese New Year leading to markets in China, Taiwan and Vietnam to be closed all week.

With little economic data from Europe we will instead focus on the week ahead with inflation data from the US, UK, Germany, Canada and New Zealand.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir


Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

Will There Be A Deal For Greece?


 

Currency Market News on The Greek Tragedy, Sterling’s Hangover and A Brighter Dollar

11, February 2010

EU leaders are meeting today in an attempt to lay the foundations for a deal to rescue Greece. Lots of speculation already touted this morning. There has been talk of IMF assistance and then IMF involvement without funding. Germany and France are widely expected to shoulder most of the responsibility in supporting Greece.

The most recent feedback is that aid for Greece will depend on Athens meeting its deficit reduction targets this year. This begs the question, “What if they do not?” Lots of fence sitting which is still leaning to reduced confidence in the markets and associated strength of the safe haven currencies such as the USD and the YEN. Expect more volatility as more news and feedback filters through.

Sterling is suffering from a hangover today after a little too much of Mervyn King yesterday. The Bank of England governor killed off the rally in sterling by leaving the door open for a further expansion of the QE programme. However it was not all doom and gloom from King who dismissed fears that the UK would lose their AAA credit status. Sterling still softer on market fear and Kings comments in early trade today.

The USD experienced further gains yesterday as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that discount rates could rise sooner than expected. This is the charge to banks for loans directly from the Fed. This tone was taken as hawkish even though Bernanke reaffirmed that interest rates would remain low for a prolonged period.

The Feds tone sharply contrasted that of the Bank of England as the US look towards a withdrawal of liquidity and a rise in cash rates with the potential higher discount rates. This reinforced USD strength especially against sterling.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.


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The Past Is The Teacher Of The Future


 

Currency Market News: Compare The Dow Of The Past To The Dow Of The Now

10, February, 2010

The Dow of 1929 took a dive after a brief recovery. That recovery was a retracement of 50% which thereafter got lower and lower with small recoveries until its final devastating low in 1933. Ancient history or a history lesson?

If we now compare that to the current situation the Dow has dropped from it recent high and shown a similar 50% retracement before starting its present decline. Is this shades of the past and of things to come?

Coins and banknotes, two of the most common ph...
Image via Wikipedia

Consider this. The US and economic partners worldwide, have been throwing money at anything and everything in order to turn the economy around. This is not private money, its public money and at some point we have to pick up the tab.

The markets are extremely volatile right now and can turn very quickly on nothing more than perception. We have seen it before and we will see it again. Couple that with the fact that the “Baby Boomers” make up a large part of sums invested and if they start to move against the Dow we all need to be on our toes and very vigilant indeed. The Baby Boomer generation have a lot of clout in this market and they are probably looking for safer havens with retirement either upon them or looming.

Currently, if you take a look at this short video you will see that almost all the indicators are to short this market with the MACD being the latest indication of a further fall for the Dow. I have indications from the special “Trade Triangles” I use that confirm this.

I have no desire to be the bearer of bad tidings or to worry you unduly, I merely wish to alert you to possible danger. For me I have thought for a long time that there is a long way to go before we are out of the woods and back on dry land so to speak.  All in all however, it does appear that some very big chickens are coming home to roost!

Please be my guest and watch this very informative video so at least you are forewarned and so that you can make your trading decisions in an intelligent way.

All the best,
Good Trading,

Tom

Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

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