Market Analysis Video: Bulls and Bears Battle On

Bulls and Bears

The battle between the Bulls and the Bears continues with negative news pushing the market lower and positive earnings pushing the market higher and helping the Bulls.

So who’s going to win?

In this short video, I show you two items that are important in this market. I also point out where support is and why this is a crucial level to watch this coming week.

The Battle Continues

Our Trade Triangle technology is neutral on the SP500 but it could turn
any day now and this is what I want to share with you today.

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Currency Market Updates The Week Ahead

09, August 2010

In the final session of trading on Friday, US Employment fell for a second straight month in July as more temporary census jobs ended, as private hiring rose less than expected, pointing to an stunted economic recovery and a potential requirement for further Quantitative Easing. The main points were as follows: Non-farm payrolls fell 131,000 the Labor Department said on Friday, as temporary jobs to conduct the decennial census dropped by 143,000.

Private employment, considered a better gauge of labor market health, rose 71,000 after increasing 31,000 in June. The government revised payrolls for May and June to show 97,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast overall employment falling 65,000 and private-sector hiring increasing 90,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent in July for a second straight month, just below market expectations for a rise to 9.6 percent.

It was a similar sentiment in the UK as both consumer and business confidence dipped again. The most recent purchasing managers’ index from the services sector indicates that, while growth continues business expectations have suffered a fall of about 10% since Spring. Friday’s PMI data showed a rise in cost of 5% which is rather high and pulls inflationary pressures into focus.

The other area of alarm for most is the idea that whilst interest rates remain low and are expected to stay as such until 2011 there seems to be greater comment around the fact that when they start to move they are likely to move quickly. It is still a very fine balance to control inflation, implement spending cuts and tax hikes whilst in the meantime not cause a double dip.

The general market view seems to be that interest rate rises back towards more ‘normal’ levels can only be implemented if the economy grows confidently the idea of pushing an already fragile economy back into recession is simply not palatable.

This week we have Mervyn King also know as Merve the Swerve will be speaking and The Bank of England is expected to give a gloomy assessment of Britain’s short-term prospects this week, forecasting weak growth and high inflation. This has been the case viewpoint-wise for a while and they are quite correct the market was heavily positioned short and we have seen sterling recover dramatically; the popular view is we may see further gains before the market renews its negative view and momentum.

It’s a key week for the majors, with the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday for their monthly policy announcement with speculation intensifying of further support for the economy to be announced. Also in the US we await the release of July’s retail sales, June’s trade balance and the latest inflation report.

In the Euro zone we await the results of growth figures for Q2 with flash GDP estimates for April to June expected on Friday. In the UK, the BoE release their quarterly inflation report on Wednesday which will be watched very closely to see what effects the government’s tightening fiscal policies are having on the economy.

Report by Philip Ryan

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Currency Market News: Pound Strong In Front Of US Non-Farm Payroll Data

06, August 2010

The pound is heading for a fourth weekly gain against the Dollar and the Euro after the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 0.5% and kept the asset purchase program unchanged also. Focus will turn to the quarterly Inflation Report to be released on August 11 and minutes to be released on August 18.

The dollar is on the defensive after reaching a three and a half month low against a basket of currencies after weak U.S jobless claims figures heightened worries that Friday’s payroll data due for release this afternoon could paint a bleak picture of the U.S. economic recovery.

Yesterday U.S labour department reported that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless benefits rose 19k to 479k, the highest since early April. Markets are expecting non-farm payrolls to shed 65k jobs in July following the 125k jobs lost in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 9.6%, up from 9.5% in the previous month, a weak reading could fuel talk that the Federal Reserve may consider additional easing steps.

ECB left rates unchanged at 1% for the 16th consecutive month as widely expected. President Trichet said in the press conference that current rates are “appropriate” and expects “price developments to remain moderate”. Economic data in Q3 were so far “better than expected” but Trichet warned again that recovery will be “moderate and uneven”. There is no change in markets’ expectation that ECB is in no rush to remove policy accommodation any time soon.

Today is all about US non-farm payrolls but firstly there are some UK and Eurozone numbers to negotiate. A large gap between producer input and output prices is expected to remain and industrial production is anticipated to have slipped from the previous month in both regions. Non Farms is anybody’s guess after the divergent numbers over the last couple of days. The market looks for an improvement from last month’s -125,000 but it will be from the Private Payrolls component that the markets will be hoping to see a strong out-turn.

Report by Tim Lewis

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How Europe and U.S. Are Trying To Prevent a Global Currency Crisis

Economic sentiment rose to a 28 month high in Europe after the panic sell off earlier this year when the Euro collapsed. A major rally has ensued after the most severe financial panic in the Euro’s history. Now the rally is pushing higher, but have the concerns dissipated? I am extremely concerned about this rally off of June lows for several reasons. I do not believe that the economies in Spain, Portugal and Greece will be saved without major restructuring, and the chance of credit defaults are extremely high. A strong Euro hurts European companies that are trying to export goods. It harms companies’ revenues and affects employment. Spain is now suffering from high unemployment, a real estate crash and the very likely chance of a credit downgrade.

It is interesting to observe the dichotomy between Europe’s handling of the debt crisis versus the United States. While Spain, Portugal and Greece have been forced to cut spending, President Obama has increased unemployment benefits and expanded social programs. The U.S. is estimating a $1.47 trillion deficit this fiscal year ending September 30, and $1.42 trillion in 2011. The U.S. is spending frivolously while the Europeans are taking aggressive steps to cut expenditures, which is weighing heavily on consumer confidence and economic growth. Over the past couple of weeks when concerns of a double dip increased, Ben Bernanke has discussed additional quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus to prevent another financial collapse while Trichet is forcing governments to cut expenditures to stem off the aggressive selling of the Euro and the concerns of a breakup of the European Union. As you can see, there is a global effort to prevent economic collapse and the manipulation at play is obvious.

I don’t believe this will continue much longer. The Europeans will have to follow the United States’ lead and devalue their currency in order to prevent political unrest and the breakup of the European Union. I suspect the rally in the Euro to come to an end soon, as the austerity measures imposed will have to be lightened. Spain has millions of people out of work already-over 20% of their population. Let’s not ignore what can happen in Europe when unemployment rates skyrocket.

The Euro’s rally and the decline in the U.S. dollar have been good for U.S. equities which were breaking into new lows in early June, with a break of 1040 on the S&P 500. The S&P has moved higher and is on the verge of breaking a major resistance point of 1130.

Comparing the U.S. dollar to the Euro, the relative trend has just hit an important area of support at the 50% fibonacci retracement and the U.S. dollar has just hit its 200 day moving average. Due to the oversold condition of the U.S. Dollar and the overbought condition of the Euro plus important support for the dollar at the 200 day and 50% fibonacci retracement on the relative strength chart, I suspect an upcoming correction in the Euro.

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The Inflationary Debate Heats Up For the Federal Reserve

Analysts and economic experts continue to exclaim the dangers of looming deflation, yet the financial market’s recent action consistently points to resurging inflationary pressures. With fears the Federal Reserve is ready to boost its quantitative-easing efforts once again, the true value of the U.S. dollar is a hot debate.

With last week’s latest reading of GDP showing the growth of the American economy slowed more than expected during the year’s second quarter, Ben Bernanke and his coworkers at the Federal Reserve are left with a tough decision: let the economy heal naturally and rather painfully or dump more cash into the system in the name of a quicker, yet riskier economic recovery.

“The disappointing economic data has clearly taken a toll on the confidence of at least a few Fed officials,” said Goldman Sachs’ top economist, Jan Hatzius, as he claims recent fiscal policy has turned contradictory.

With short-term interest rates already sitting at record-low levels, the Federal Reserve’s next choice to boost monetary levels is by purchasing bonds. Already, Bernanke has signed off on some $1.7 trillion worth of debt. But with fresh signs the economic recovery may be faltering, insiders say that figure may swell to over $5 trillion.

Bernanke tipped his hat earlier this week during a speech in South Carolina. “We have a considerable way to go to achieve a full recovery in our economy, and many Americans are still grappling with unemployment, foreclosure and lost savings,” he said. “We need to be careful about tightening too quickly.”

Unfortunately, low interest rates and excess liquidity can do little to manipulate the psyche of American investors and businesses. With fear and uncertainty remaining high, risk appetites remain low. That means savings are up and debt is coming down.

Also By This AuthorThe Financial Market Moves On, Economic Recover…Are Company Bulls Setting Us Up for FailureThe (Un)Intended Consequences of FinReg, Financ…Housing Market Will Recover Without the Government

“Consumers are reluctant to lock up their money and prefer to have cash readily available even if it means lower interest rates,” said Dan Geller of Market Rates Insight. “Fear of inflation, combined with uncertainty about the prospects of meaningful economic recovery, is causing some consumers to sit on their cash.”

The situation is bad news for banks that are sitting on quickly growing stockpiles of cash with few places to put it. With the ultra-safe Treasury market paying record-low yields, the difference in what banks pay out in interest and what they receive for purchasing bonds is at all-time lows.

“The bottom line is that it hurts your margin if you get a lot of deposits and have nowhere to put them,” said Kevin Fitzsimmons, of Sandler O’Neill & Partners.

With a glut of dollars forcing the value of the American currency and interest rates down, corporate and private investors will naturally begin to look overseas for profit opportunities. “The carry trade could become very fashionable again,” said Martin Wiedmann of Credit Suisse. If it happens, he contends, it will add even more negative pressure to the dollar.

Deflation may be the “term du jour” for economists and analysts, but with the U.S. dollar threatening to decline even further, it is important to keep a sharp lookout for inflationary indicators. It may be a term we hear much more about in the near future.

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Why Do Red States Vote Republican While Blue States Pay Their Bills?

This is really good stuff as it’s too complex for the MSM to discuss but very important to understand the relationship between the State and Federal budgets as the red state Senators are now filibustering aid to the blue states and the blue states are going to finally wake up (as this stuff is being discussed behind the scenes now) and cut off the spigot to the red states as this really is the final insult to a system that has gotten more and more unfair for years.

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Phil Explains Why Ultra ETF’s Decay

StockTalks I am buying SKF on what should be a down day for the markets and short selling CTSH on overvaluation. http://bit.ly/arS8p9/ about 23 hours ago Updates to Sabrient’s Mesa and Alpha systems, Alpha is buying JRCC. Mesa’s doing nothing today: http://bit.ly/bM8xRy about 23 hours ago I am buying HNT on health care earnings buzz and short selling MNKD on overvaluation. http://bit.ly/aktzTG/ 2 days ago More » Latest Comments

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Currency Market News: Pound Tops USD

4, August 2010

It makes a very refreshing change to see the pound leading the charge in the currency markets, outperforming all of the major currencies. Against the USD the pound hit and tested a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5968- it did not break it but this will be the target again for today and beyond this the 1.60 level.

So what is behind the sustained turn in fortunes for the pound? A recent improvement in economic indicators has been a key driver and this has followed more recently with strong results in corporate earnings and banking results. In addition the global market sentiment has improved and the return to risk in the markets is always a boost for sterling.

HSBC, Lloyds and even Northern Rock have demonstrated a boost in profits and this is leading to sentiment that the recovery is gathering momentum with gains also posted in the FTSE. The pounds good run will also be supported by UK Halifax house prices rising 0.6% for July, however services PMI came in weaker than expected at 53.1 against a forecast of 54.5. GBP/USD slumped a touch on the news but is now starting to recoup those losses.

Overnight the Australian reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50%, the pace of growth is continuing in Australia in line with expectations allowing the reserve bank to slow the pace of rate rises following a succession of hikes.

Later today we have more feedback from the US economy with US personal income and spending, US factory orders and US pending sales. Economic data from the US will now be closely scrutinized for any further indications that the pace of growth is slowing. This has led to a sharp turn of fortune for the USD which has lost ground across the currency markets.

The Fed recently indicated that if growth stutters going forward then further stimulus measures could again be introduced. This would be negative for the USD especially if other major economies continue to grow ahead of the US economy.

Report by Phil McHugh

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Market Analysis Video: Crude Oil Headed Up

The massive move-up in crude oil on Monday created a new dynamic for this in-the-news market. The move to two-month highs completed one of our favorite major technical formations.

In this short video, I share with you two conflicting indicators and which one I am choosing to go with. I think you’ll find this video technically interesting as well as educational.

For more trading ideas, visit the Trader’s Blog

Please feel free to comment on our blog with your thoughts on this market.
Adam Hewison
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Co-founder of MarketClub

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Government Needs To Govern

« U.S. and European Equities Keep Climbingby Hiland Doolittle

Every Thursday, CNBC stands on ceremony to reveal the Department of Labor’s exciting weekly unemployment report.  If you have witnessed the spectacle once, say a year ago, and you listened to today’s ceremony, you would not see, hear or feel much difference.  After all, baloney is baloney. 

The Labor Department, the Obama Administration, the Congress and the media go through the motions, but none of these groups possess the strength of character, the moral integrity or the conviction to do the right thing and address unemployment from top to bottom until it is fixed.   

For one thing, the politicians are too busy making news and shaping a statistically attractive re-election profile to work on anything constructive, like employment reform.  It is easier and safer to point fingers than sit down and work on solving the country’s biggest problem. 

Even the eloquent and hopeful tones of President Barrack Obama have worn thin under the weight of 14.6 million unemployed workers. The President has become another media puppet, playing Main Street at every chance he gets to repeat his fading chorus for change, which is now spelled F-R-U-S-T-R-A-T-I-O-N.

If you did not have a job; if you were not sure your job would be there come Monday; if you had one or more persons counting on that job, you would find the Thursday media feeding, the President and the Congress of the United States obnoxious, insensitive and arrogant.

Realistically, how could the weekly jobs report improve? 

The government cannot afford the employees it has, especially the ones in the high places.  Businesses are afraid to spend money because they understand that next time, there will be no bailouts and because there are so many costly legislative acts on the table that nobody knows what a new employee might really cost.  Besides, many businesses are profiting better than ever by trimming payrolls.  New entrepreneurs have no access to credit and, at this time, investors are not prone to risk.

The people we have elected to solve these problems appear little more than a disjointed three-ring circus.  The Congress cannot agree with the Senate.  Nobody agrees with the President.  All three circus rings lack leadership. 

The audience sees plenty of smokescreens but no solutions. What this country needs is not Republican or Democratic theater.  We do not need smokescreens.  We need people to sit down at a table in a room filled with accurate statistics and come up with very real solutions. 

That is how this country was born.  It is time to do it again!

Remember, someday our children will be returning from war.  When they come home, they will be jobless.  Is that how we shall treat our veterans?

Facts are Facts 

14.6 million Americans are unemployed.

Initial claims for state unemployment fell to 457,000 last week.Figures for the previous week were revised upwards so that 468,000 applied for benefits.Applications for new benefits fell by 11,000 last week.The four-week average decreased to 452,000, down 4,500 from the previous four-week average.In the week ending July 17, 4.57 million people were receiving benefits after an initial week of aid; an increase of 81,000 over the previous week.On July 22, President Obama signed legislation restoring benefits to recipients whose benefits expired June 2. The legislation extended unemployment to insurance to 99 weeks.In a report from the National Association of Counties, the National League of Cities and the U.S. Conference of Mayors, local governments are projected to trim 500,000 workers by the end of 2011.

The Temporary Assistance For Needy Families

The Temporary Assistance For Need Families program was created in 1996 as a part of welfare reform legislation.  The theory was that it was better for the government to issue money to states so that states could put people back to work rather than simply subsidize unemployed workers.

Through this program, states are now applying for and receiving funds to put workers back to work.  The program smacks of the Great Depression but there are new twists that actually make sense.  The government is paying wages for workers who go to work for small businesses.

The New York Times identified a former computer technician who had lost his job.  Through the Put Illinois to Work Program, the out-of-work computer technician now earns $10.00 an hour to work in an art gallery. 

These federal job subsidies were originally financed with $5 billion of stimulus money.  One of the problems confronting long-term unemployed is that the longer workers are away from work, the less qualified they are to return to work. 

Programs like Put Illinois to Work are not only putting workers on the front line but they are helping small businesses as well.  Of course, the fear is that small business will never start hiring their own workers as long as there are government-subsidized workers available.

A research organization entitled the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities reports that 247,000 subsidized workers will be on the job by the end of September.  Typically, the jobs pay between $8.00 and $15.00 and cover blue and white-collar jobs.

A little more than $1 billion has been approved to create subsidized programs in 36 states and the District of Columbia.  Illinois operates the biggest year round program.  Most of the states pay the full wages up to a certain point.  Workers must come from a low-income household with minor children or be under 21 years of age themselves.

States and businesses alike are pushing to extend the program beyond the September cutoff.  The program accomplishes many goals but has also created some complications. If the business where subsidized workers are employed slows down, employers are laying off long-time employees to keep the subsidized workers. 

These details can be resolved.  The point is that someone came up with a plan to help people get back to work.  While it is true that there are Americans who do not really want to work, the fact is that work is part of our culture and part of our individual composition.  Being unemployed for a length of time is a strenuous, negative and expensive experience.

It is time for Washington to step up to the plate or go home and do not come back.  This is why Congressmen and Senators were hired and why their successors will be hired.  Stop pointing fingers and get to work.

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Forex Supersonic Trading Strategy – Free Offer

2, August, 2010

Forex trader,  John Wilson is handing out his new forex trading software for sharp traders wishing to exploit the early market shift when the UK market opens. The auto-pilot features help to reduce that age old emotion problem and the need to be up all hours in front of your computer screen.

As it does not cost a penny Forex Supersonic is surely worth a minute of your time.

You will need to hurry as this will not be available for much longer.

Go watch the Forex Supersonic video now before it disappears.

Currency Market Updates The Dow Jones Fall

2, August 2010

On Friday, the Dow Jones fell by as much as 120 points after annualised growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was found to have slowed from 3.7% in the first quarter to 2.4% in the second. That came on the back of growth of 5% in the final three months of 2009. (see Friday’s post)

The US was initially thought to have grown by 2.7% in the first quarter but that was revised upwards on a day of surprises for economists. The US Commerce Department also revised downwards GDP figures all the way back to the beginning of 2007. The second-quarter slowdown led economists to question whether the US might be poised to enter a period of negative growth later in the year, leading to a much-feared double-dip recession.

The Dow Jones fell sharply after the release of the GDP data before recovering ground to settle down 40.72 at 10,426.44 in lunchtime trading. Economists had predicted second-quarter growth of 2.5pc, but their disappointment was compounded by the revised data for the first three months of 2010.

The biggest concern in the City was the size of the downward revisions to previous years’ growth. In 2009 the economy was previously estimated to have declined by 2.4%, but the figure was revised to a drop of 2.6%. The disappointing growth numbers were compounded by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual report on the US economy. The IMF said there may be a need for the Obama administration to increase the amount of fiscal stimulus in order to boost the recovery, warning the “outlook remains uncertain”.

In the UK, George Osborne has said that banks must increase lending to businesses rather than boosting bonuses and dividends now that they have weathered the worst of the credit crisis. Britain’s Treasury chief told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper that banks “have an economic obligation to assist” small and medium-sized businesses. The statement comes in line with half-year figures released this week that are expected to confirm that the major institutions have returned to profit after two years of turmoil.

Lloyds Banking Group, which is 41% owned by the taxpayer, and the 84% state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland are both expected to post a profit. But Osborne questions the ability of British businesses to raise credit from the banks. “The danger is that, particularly next year, when there is a huge amount of refinancing required, that the small and medium-sized businesses suffer from a lack of access to working capital,” he said.

Osborne continued that British banks “are in no doubt that the government wants to see reasonable access to credit on reasonable terms in the small to medium-sized business sector.” The expected bank profits have boosted the recent Cable rally and we are now trading in the 1.58s and well on track to the key 1.60 psychological level.

As we look ahead this week, Interest rates will watched closely with monetary policy meetings taking place in several countries over the next 4 days. Tonight, Australia get the ball rolling followed by the UK, Eurozone and The Czech Republic all on Thursday. Following the softer than expected Australian CPI figure, the Reserve Bank of Australia are now deemed unlikely to move rates – a change away from the previously anticipated tightening – despite the stronger, but very volatile, manufacturing PMI number. No change from the BoE or the ECB is also on the cards but as usual, it will be the post-meeting press conferences that will draw the forex market’s attention.

Report by Philip Ryan

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