Your Free Chance to Learn How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis
EWI’s Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy gives you practical lessons — free
By Elliott Wave International

There are two camps of market analysts out there: the fundamental camp and the technical one. Fundamental analysts look at things like the GDP, unemployment, interest rates, etc. to make logical assumptions about where the stock market is going. Technical analysts use none of that. They look at the market’s internals to gauge the trend: things like momentum, trend channels — and yes, Elliott wave patterns. Well, this is your free chance to learn how they do it. Read more.

17, September, 2010

Over the past 10 years, the deliberate undervaluation of the Yuan by Chinese authorities has always been the elephant in the room in FX markets. The Chinese economic juggernaut has been powered by exports of manufactured goods to the west made cheap by very low input costs. Quite rightly, China has been labelled the workshop of the world, and 8% average growth over the past thirty years has turned the underdeveloped middle kingdom to an economic powerhouse & the second largest economy in the world, behind the US.

America has long known China would overtake them eventually as the largest economy in the world, but they feel the Yuan undervaluation is giving the Chinese an unfair advantage. The cheap currency encourages Chinese exports and promotes outsourcing of jobs from the US to China, which in a time of sluggish economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment in the US, automatically makes it political hot potato.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s comments yesterday that the US would use “all the tools we have” to reverse the bloated trade deficit with China, including WTO rules on fair trade, should come as no surprise in content, only in strength, given the usual soft tone used in diplomatic circles. His comments come on the back of direct Japanese intervention earlier in the week aimed a curbing the strength on the Yen, and raises the prospect of a triangular trade dispute between the three largest economies in the world.

Sterling was, quite frankly, all over the place yesterday. Disappointing retail sales figures pushed the pound quickly lower in early trading, but as seems to be the way just now, we shook the negative news off quickly and resumed the march towards 1.57 against the USD. Improvements in risk sentiment has aided Sterling’s move, as has improving economic data in Europe and the successful Spanish bond auction yesterday. The Euro has been driven higher against the Dollar, lifting Sterling versus the USD as well and we now trade over 1.31 in EURUSD and 1.57 in GBPUSD.

Today, the eco calendar contains only some second tier eco data in Europe. In the US, the CPI and the Michigan consumer confidence are on the agenda. Recently, inflation data were no big issue for currency trading. Nevertheless, with markets focused on whether or not the fed should engage in more QE, a lower than expected figure could be slightly dollar negative.

Report by Alistair Cotton

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

Currency Market Updates

BlogCatalog – Finance

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Michael Smith, President of T & K Futures and Options Inc. predicts “a lower US Dollar and higher crude oil prices may push gold futures prices to new highs in 2007.”

Gold seems to have found a place in many investors’ long term investment portfolios. Gold has been called a safe haven investment and a hedge against inflation but in our opinion the reasons for higher gold futures prices in 2007 will be a continued weakening of the US Dollar versus other currencies and higher crude oil prices.

In 2006 gold futures prices reached 0 an ounce. Coincidentally, the US Dollar was declining rapidly and oil futures prices were rallying near record highs during this same time frame.

Why would the US Dollar decline more in 2007? There are a few possible catalysts that may push the US Dollar lower this year. The huge US deficit, the war in Iraq and the largest US consumer debt ratio per capita in history are just a few reasons the US Dollar may lose some of its safe haven aura and send investor capital flooding the gold futures and gold options.

What would make crude oil prices rise in 2007? Middle East conflicts, high global demand and OPEC’s inability (excluding Saudi Arabia) to increase current production capacity are a few of the possible reasons for higher crude oil prices this year. When one considers that nearly 20% of the entire world’s crude oil has to come through the Strait of Hormuz, the current nuclear agenda and aggression exhibited from Iran makes the interruption of a huge portion of the global supply of crude oil a potential reality.

The Department of Energy reported that demand was not diminished greatly by the record crude oil supplies last year. In other words, it will most likely take much higher crude oil prices to subdue global economic expansion and therefore, the world’s appetite for crude oil. High crude oil prices infer higher inflation levels which may send investors scurrying to gold futures and gold options as an inflationary hedge. Visit www.tkfutures.com/education.htm to learn more about gold futures and gold options trading.

Higher crude oil prices and a weakening US Dollar are just a few of the possibilities that may lead to higher gold futures prices this year. Visit www.tkfutures.com/gold.htm to learn more about gold futures and gold options investing.

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13, September, 2010

Global banking stocks are on the rise today as regulators announced details of the Basel III accord, raising the minimum core Tier 1 capital level from 2 to 4.5 per cent with a subsequent 2.5 per cent require as a buffer against future shocks, which is to act in a counter cyclical manner in the sense that Banks will set aside the money when the going is good.

Listen to Alistair Cotton on the podcast >>>

Large British banks already meet the capital benchmarks comfortably, RBS, Lloyds Barclays and HSBC all have core Tier one ratios of around 9-10%, but the announcement will spark a fresh round of capital raising in the worldwide banking sector. Today Deutsche Bank announced it will tap shareholders for cash to pay for it’s acquisition of retail bank Deutsche Postbank and to bolster its own capital position, expect this to be the first of many over the next few months. The announcement has signalled risk-on (at least for today) and Sterling is gaining against the safe haven currencies of the Dollar and Yen.

The gain in the Pound today look likely to be short lived, with the Chancellors controversial budget cuts sparking union discontent and threats of co-ordinated strike action across the country. George Osborne detailed further reductions in the welfare budget, amounting to £4 Billion, but he gave no details on where the axe may fall (this is on top of the £11 Billion of cuts announced in the emergency budget in June).

The strikes would see disruption to the economy on a scale not seen for many decades and will be heavily Sterling negative – this will be on top of the effect on the Pound of a reduction in growth levels when spending cuts begin to take effect.

Better than expected jobless claims figures aided a rise in the Dollar on Friday, but as mentioned above, the Basel announcement has lifted risk sentiment and the Greenback has given back most the gains. The Yen Dollar pair continues to trade close to a 15 year high as Japanese authorities keep up the intervention rhetoric without actually doing anything of substance.

Today is light on releases but tomorrow sees GBP CPI figures & German economic sentiment.

Report By Alistair Cotton

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

Currency Market Updates

BlogCatalog – Finance

6, September, 2010

Today is Labour Day in the US and in Canada which means very little work will be done anywhere.

Going back to Friday, the stripped out version of the non-farm payrolls figure produced much stronger numbers than had been anticipated. The market now feels that removing the seasonally volatile short-term Government hirings gives a much more relevant picture of the employment situation.

Accordingly, August private payrolls were reported to have grown by 67,000 (against the consensus figure of 40,000) whilst the July number was revised up from the previously reported -131,000 to -54,000. Economists quickly concluded that, although the US economy continues to face problems ahead, and that the unemployment rate will likely remain stubbornly high, Friday’s employment report is an important step in the right direction, and should weaken the case for additional quantitative easing on the part of Federal Reserve.

Listen to  the full report with Tim Lewis on the podcast >>>

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

Currency Market Updates

BlogCatalog – Finance

1, September, 2010

Listen to the full report from Tim Lewis on the podcast >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The highlight overnight was the release of the minutes from the August 10th Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. Some Federal Reserve officials were concerned that a decision to keep securities holdings unchanged would inadvertently signal an intention to resume large-scale asset purchases.

Also, a few policy makers said the economic effects of the decision “would be quite small,” but at the same time, some officials saw “increased downside risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation” and voiced concern that further shocks would cause “significant slowing in growth”.

The debate shows the challenge Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may face in achieving consensus for any additional monetary stimulus to reverse a slowdown in growth and reduce joblessness more quickly. In a speech last week, Bernanke said “Policy makers haven’t agreed on specific criteria or triggers for further action”.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

Currency Market Updates

BlogCatalog – Finance

Today’s guest article is from Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International.

It starts: “Perhaps the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation. That advice alone should be worth the time you spent to read this book.”

3 Reasons Now is Not the Time to Speculate in Stocks
Sometimes the investment weather forces you to ‘buy a coat,’ says Robert Prechter
By Elliott Wave International

When it’s sunny, you head outside without a thought, but when it’s rainy, you look for your umbrella. When the markets are trending up, you don’t worry about your investments much, but when the markets turn bearish … what do you do? Read more.