2 June 2010
Yesterday, Cable had its best 24 hours in recent weeks as the Prudential-AIA deal collapsed inducing a 260 pip rally. This welcome boost for Sterling came through the unwinding of billions of dollars bought in anticipation of a merger with one of South East Asia’s largest insurers.
In addition to the Greenback sell off, the pound found support with positive PMI manufacturing data for May reaching 58, a 16 year high and good housing data from the Land Registry report which indicated home prices rose 8.5% yoy, the fastest rise since September 2007.
It was another poor day for the Euro yesterday, with worrying signs that the euro zone debt crisis may be spreading to the banking system. Spain’s second largest savings bank Caja Madrid is understood to have sought a bailout package worth €3 billion from a government rescue fund.
This is a double hammer for the bank who only last week had its rating placed on Credit Watch negative by Standard & Poor’s, which expects pressure on profits this year. This is further bad news for the Bank of Spain as they push for mergers amongst the smaller saving banks.
The news sent shock waves into the markets, the Euro fell to a 4 year low against the Dollar and currently sits at 1.2233 and 1.1993 against Sterling at the time of writing.
It was a mix bag of European data yesterday with EU statistics estimated that 10.1% of EU citizens were unemployed and increase of 0.1% month on month. However Germany indicated positive unemployment data falling from 7.8% to 7.7%. Furthermore boosts in export as a result of the weaker Euro drove the positive GDP growth in Germany, France and Spain for the first quarter of the year.
Finally, US manufacturing data from overnight was certainly positive amid signs that the US economy might indeed be able to reinvent itself as a manufacturing hub. The data out of China yesterday was certainly not particularly good but if the US economy is stable, then the world economy stands a chance of staying healthy in the long term.
Report by Philip Ryan
Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.


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The Results From Goldman Sachs Shocks Markets
21 April, 2010
The results from Goldman Sachs shocked the markets as revenues for the 1st Quarter was $ 1 billion more than estimated. The Greek situation went from bad to worse yesterday with market talk of ever-upwardly spiraling bail-out costs leading to a rise in the country’s debt yields and CDS prices.
The 10-year bond yield broke above 8% for the first time since the Euro’s introduction yesterday and the 5-year CDS level has hit a new high of 476 this morning. With today’s belated start to the IMF/EU investigation likely to last anywhere from 10 – 14 days, there appears little likelihood of positive news over the next few days. True, Greece managed to get away a tranche of 3-month bills into the market but this positive was tempered by the rate that they needed to pay to ensure success – approximately 2 1/2% higher than an equivalent German issue would cost.
The euro has accordingly looked vulnerable, especially given that the US dollar no longer appears to react negatively to positive economic/earnings data from the US. Expect more Euro downside as we approach the end of the month.
Sterling has been the gainer amongst the ‘majors’, picking up against all the others. The ‘hung parliament’ issue is history (for now) and economic data has been buoyant. British consumer price inflation (CPI) rose more than expected yesterday to 3.4% in March from 3% in February against a forecast of 3.2% meaning Mervyn King has yet another letter to write to the treasury. The news of higher inflation raises UK rate rise speculation with the Central Bank acting sooner rather than later although I feel that this interpretation is still tenuous.
Today’s MPC minutes will reveal nothing, the last meeting being too close to the election for anything meaningful not to be interpreted as being political by some faction or other. Tomorrow’s live debate between the 3 leaders will likely prove more interesting for markets with last week’s first offering seen as a bit of a practice run for the ‘Big 2′ and the Lib-Dems probably getting a less easy ride this time.
Yesterday saw the Bank of Canada leave rates steady but come out with a bullish assessment of the economy going forward and as clear a hint as a Central Bank is able to produce, of a rate rise on the 1st June. The CAD surged back below parity to the USD and the AUD reacted in a similar way, strengthening against the US Dollar and testing record highs against the Euro. Both still feature highly in ‘best currencies to be in’ portfolios for the rest of 2010.
A downside for markets was the call from the IMF for the world’s leading economies to impose new taxes on Bank’s balance sheets to pay for the financial clean-up as well as a fresh additional levy on Banks profits and pay.
Report by Tim Lewis
Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
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Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
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