Euro Trading News Reveals The Pain In Spain


 

26 May 2010

Yesterday was packed full of announcements from the Eurozone, some welcome some not. First, Italy followed Greece, Spain and Portugal in outlining €20bln of government savings aimed at bringing their deficit below the EU threshold by 2012.

Second, Spain announced the merger of four regional savings banks to one, in the process creating its fifth largest financial institution and, it is hoped, bringing much needed stability to the beleaguered Spanish banking system. The shotgun marriage comes hot on the heels of the Spanish Governments rescue of Caja Sur, another regional lender, after its own merger fell through at the final hurdle.

The not so welcome news is that Germany is looking to extend the ban on short selling to all shares (this is extended from government bonds, credit default swaps and the top 10 German financial institutions). Quite how this unilateral ban will work when it looks as though we are entering a fully blown bear market in not clear, but we do expect continued volatility in the EURUSD and the GBPEUR pair as investors try to gain from falling markets.

In Britain, the new coalition government announced their plans for the new parliament with a raft of new bills outlined in the Queen’s speech. The highlights and those most likely to affect the FX markets include the Office of Budget Responsibility Bill, which will take economic forecasting out of the Treasury’s hands and the financial reform bill which will break up the tripartite system and will also investigate bank levy’s and the breaking up of large banks.

All the announcements had zero impact on Sterling yesterday, as did the revision upwards to of GDP figures, events abroad are deemed much more important at the moment in valuing the Pound.

Today is quiet on the data front, we have USD Durable orders new home sales but the markets are waiting for the US GDP numbers due out tomorrow.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Stock Market Volatility Continues As Obama Gets His Way


 

21 May 2010

Stock markets around the world suffered further falls yesterday as investors continued to unwind risky positions and move into calmer waters. The problems in the Eurozone have been the driving force behind the huge market movements we have seen across the currencies over the past few days.

China has been powering the world’s economy over many years, but with Europe its largest customer, investors fear a European induced Chinese slowdown would derail any economic recovery. Hedge funds are reported to be reversing positions to preserve capital, most notably in the Aussie dollar pairs, which have seen large swings in value over the past few days.

Disappointing economic data yesterday from the USA showing a surprise increase of 25,000 in jobless claims and poor Eurozone consumer confidence figures exacerbated the negative sentiment in the market yesterday.

Sterling fell to its lowest level in 13 months against the Dollar driven by the rush into the safe haven rather than anything Sterling based. Retails sales showed a third straight month of increases, a positive bit of data for the UK that was shrugged off very quickly by the market.

Sterling sentiment remains weak, so expect the Pound to come under further pressure as risk is taken further off the table. With the EU meeting today to attempt to shore up, the the Euro-Sterling is trading down, but expect large moves in the pair today as news starts to emerge about any plans ministers have to avert any break-up of the Eurozone.

Last night, the US Senate approved the financial reform bill after lengthy negotiations. The legislation, penned as a response to the Credit Crunch will, amongst other things, stop deposit taking banks from trading on their own accounts (proprietary trading) and allow the government to seize control of a failing firm that is judged to be systematically important.

We will have to wait on the fine print, but this will almost certainly have large implications for the markets because the biggest players (the banks) will be forced into restructuring. The added uncertainty of how this will work is adding to fears over the Eurozone.

Today the key pieces of economic data are German IFO business climate and UK Public sector Net Borrowing.

Report by Report by Alistair Cotton.

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Trading News – Euro Dollar Parity?


 

17 May 2010

The Euro has continued sliding against the Dollar, reaching the lowest level in four years. Concerns remain about the massive bailout package announced by the EU and IMF last week and how effective (or not) it might be addressing the core issue affecting troubled EU member states, namely huge fiscal deficits.

The ECB have been intervening directly in secondary bond markets, bringing some well needed stability and halting the huge volatility in yields over past couple of months. The side effect of the ECBs intervention has been to move all traders with negative view of the Eurozone from the bond market to currencies, and with EU officials publicly announcing the need for a weaker currency, it looks like a one way bet at the moment.

Most of the financial press over the weekend were calling for parity in the euro, but if the market is over sold we may see a short squeeze over the next few days before the Euro moves lower again.

The new UK Government is indicating that is making deficit reduction a priority, Chancellor George Osborne has just announced £6bn of savings the details of which will be announced next Monday. The emergency budget (EM) promised by the Tories in their manifesto will be on the 22nd of June.

The Office of Budget Responsibility (newly created by the Conservatives) will publish economic forecasts before the EM because Osborne thinks the market has completely lost confidence in the current Treasury forecasts (3.5% growth next year does seems on the high side). Sterling has rallied on the back of this but market sentiment seems still to be for further falls in Sterling against the Dollar.

In a busy week for data releases, in the UK we have the Bank of England minutes released on Wednesday, CPI figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday. In the Eurozone we have Economic sentiment and CPI data and a large amount retail figures from member countries. With the market still jumpy, expect further volatility in the Euro pairs in the run up to the releases.

Report by Report by Alistair Cotton.

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Trading News – New 14 Month Low


 

14 May 2010

In euro trading news the Eurozone took yet another pounding yesterday as rigorous fiscal tightening threatens to dampen an already weak recovery. Eurodollar has crashed to 14 month lows of $1.25 after boosting to nearly $1.31 on Monday after the $1 trillion emergency rescue package was announced.

News from one of the “PIGS”, Portugal is attempting to cut €2 bn from its budget gap. This has done little to reduce the weakness in the Euro and with more tax hikes and salary cuts due, we could see ugly scenes like those witnessed from Greece. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has stated the ECB is not “embarking on quantitative easing” and he reiterated that “the Governing Council will not tolerate inflation” leading to speculation a rise in interest rates could be on the horizon.

Sterling has also taken a hit this morning with news that the new coalition has already come to loggerheads. With two political parties with separate agendas leading the country, a schedule for cutting the deficit will take longer to agree and with the credit agencies hovering, a negative outlook over the UK will remain. A cut in the UK’s prized AAA credit rating would have disastrous consequences to the recovery. Data released yesterday showing the UK’s trade deficit widened more than expected, damaged hopes for an export led resurgence.

The dollar has been the main winner from the negative news from Europe as investors run for their “safe haven”. The greenback has also been supported by encouraging figures from the US and expectations that the FED will be the first among the major central banks to raise interest rates. The main focus from today will be the release of April’s retail sales as Obama and Co look for fuel to extend the rally. Also released today is the University of Michigan’s Industrial production consumer sentiment survey.

Report by Report by Tim Lewis

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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New UK PM Sees Sterling Rally


 

New UK PM, David Cameron finally entered Downing Street last night after days of behind the scenes deal making. Mr Clegg has secured the deputy prime minister post and several other prominent cabinet positions for his team including a business/banking role for Vince Cable. Changes to the voting system were also part of the deal and can be seen as the major issue conceded by the Conservatives in forming the alliance.

Quite how this full coalition will work out after the honeymoon period is far from clear and may explain Sterling’s slightly muted reaction this morning. The markets now wait to see details on the immediate reduction of the Government deficit. The Sterling rally may not last long if the new Government cannot decide on the swift policy responses that the market thinks is required.

After the bounce on Monday from the EU/IMF rescue package, the euro is now trading lower as the details of the deal are digested. The general impression we now have is that although the size of the deal is unprecedented, the further you get into the details, the less impressive it seems.

It does not seem to address the root problem – namely that Eurozone countries need to deliver drastic spending cuts. The rescue package may just be pushing the problem further down the line. Another point to consider is that €750 bln may not go that far if a country like Spain were to get into real trouble – which would then almost certainly drag Italy & Portugal down as well and the cupboard would be well and truly bare.

A quiet day for the Dollar yesterday but the USD continues to trade higher across the board as general risk aversion continues. Today Mervyn King gives his quarterly inflation report – expect him to further talk down the Pound. The key economic data out today is Eurozone GDP figure and UK jobless claims, we also have speeches from Fed members this evening to look out for.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Trading News – Will The Bailout REALLY Help?


 

11 May 2010

Positive trading in the Eurozone during Monday’s session was erased overnight after doubts surrounding the success of the bailout package emerged. Merek Belka, the director of the IMF’s European department, said he doesn’t consider the rescue package a “long term solution” to the regions debt crisis.

These “well timed” comments sent the Euro plummeting back to last weeks levels against GBP and USD. Concerns are growing that the “shock and awe” €750bn lending package will not change the structural problems plaguing the Eurozone and help debt strapped nations with widening deficits and slower growth.

Pressure on Sterling continued as PM Gordon Brown announced he would step aside in a last-ditch effort to keep Labour in power. With Britain’s two big parties courting the Liberal democrats, the hung parliament scenario could remain for some time to come.

The pound dropped close to a percent to the majors in the ensuing period as the continued uncertainty lends to jitters in the markets and the pound. The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5% while making no change to its quantitative easing programme.

Focus remains on the outcome of the inconclusive election, but Wednesday’s UK Quarterly Inflation Report will also be watched closely with more upbeat predictions expected. Of course, the Euro Bailout will continue to dominate market movement.

Report by Tim Lewis

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Gains a Big Boost


 

10 May 2010

In a bold move clearly designed to impress the markets, EU finance ministers last night announced a €750 bln facility to help indebted member countries (this comes on top of the already announced €110 bln bail-out of Greece!). The package is made up of €440 bln in government backed loan guarantees from the 16 member countries, €220 bln from the IMF and €60 bln from the European Commission.

The euro gained strength after the news broke and trades almost 1% higher against sterling and 1.5% versus the the dollar and stock markets in Asia and Europe opened sharply higher.

Alongside this, the ECB will be pursuing the ‘nuclear option’ of buying Government bonds on the secondary markets, effectively printing money to help fiscally constrained countries. Central Banks around the world have also reopened Dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve in coordinated action to try to alleviate any short term liquidity problems in US Dollar funding markets across the globe.

The sheer size and coordination of the package means we are in uncharted territory in respect to how this will affect the Euro in the long-run. The EU have taken the ‘whatever it takes’ path in dealing with the crisis and their shock and awe tactics seem to be working – markets have reacted positively to the news – but it is early days and we will need to wait and see.

In the UK we are still waiting for a new Prime Minister, markets were expecting an announcement on Sunday evening but the EU situation has taken the spotlight off David Cameron and Nick Clegg and bought them a little longer to try to thrash out a deal. But the EU news is not good for Britain, the market will be looking for its next victim. With a vast budget deficit to tackle and no-one to bail us out if we get into difficulty the Pound may be next in line for the speculators.

The Bank of England meets today but with no change expected to be made to interest rates or their asset purchase scheme, all eyes will continue to be on messers Clegg and Cameron to see if they form a Government, if they can not, look for further weakness in Sterling over the coming weeks.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Pound Suffers As Hung Parliament Confirmed


 

7 May 2010

A hung parliament (UK) has been confirmed to the detriment of the pound. We are now awaiting to see if a majority coalition can be formed with the most likely scenario being a Conservative/Lib-Dem majority.

Conservative leader David Cameron said it was “clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern this country”. Gordon Brown may also initiate coalition talks with the Lib Dems, who, Nick Clegg admitted, had a “disappointing night”.

For the financial markets and the pound, the UK needs a quick deal to be struck between the parties. The longer the indecision the more the pound will suffer. We are in no mans land at the moment and the markets do not like uncertainty. This is leading to a sell off in the pound. The pound should bounce if a majority coalition is formed, however horse-trading will only heap more pressure on the pound.

The financial markets and credit rating agencies will want to see action on the UK fiscal policy as a matter of priority regardless of the new government. Procrastination and disagreement will lead us towards the path of a sovereign downgrade.

In euro trading news is better. The euro has risen this morning after Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said that the G-7 plans to hold a conference call today to discuss the Greek debt crisis, after global stocks fell dramatically yesterday. The comments sent the euro rising against the dollar after it hit a 14 month low yesterday. The G-7 has not intervened in the currency market since a coordinated effort to buy the euro in 2000.

The US sell off, triggered by Europe’s debt crisis, was sparked by signs that the Greek situation is spreading. The yields in Spanish and Greek debt rose to the highest level since the euros inauguration. In a flashback to 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled almost 1000 points during the US afternoon session. The SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a joint statement after US markets closed that they will inspect ‘unusual trading’ or a bad case of “fat finger” that contributed to this fall.

The main data release today is the Non Farm Payroll numbers for April. Estimates put the net change at a 190k increase, which would be a modest improvement over the previous month’s reading and the best reading since March 2007. The jobless rate is seen holding at 9.7%.

Report by Philip Ryan

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Sterling Market Awaits Today’s UK Election


 

6 May 2010

Today’s UK election marks the end of a frantic month of campaigning for the three main parties. The latest polls show David Cameron holding a slight advantage going in polling day, but the unique nature of the build up has transformed the election and the pounds’ fortunes along with it. The strong performance of Nick Clegg in the televised debates increased the probability of a hung parliament and the market has kept  the sterling market prices depressed ever since.

If we see a majority Government, in all likelihood led by David Cameron, we expect to see a strong rally against the dollar and especially against the euro on Friday. If we see a hung parliament, the picture becomes a murkier. The sterling market will likely fall, but by how much and for how long will be a function of the time it takes for the parties to hammer out a deal.

Since this situation does not generally happen in the British electoral system and even with the best efforts of the top civil servants (who have been visiting countries with coalition governments so see how the process works) it is far from clear how long we might be without an elected government – and if there is one thing markets don’t like, it is uncertainty.

Speaking of which, the Greek situation continues to deteriorate. EuroDollar lost almost two cents yesterday as continued worries over a Greek default and contagion fears in other Eurozone countries played on the minds of investors. At one point EURUSD broke through 1.28, the lowest level since March 2009.

Today, the ECB meet for it’s monthly interest rate decision, with the actual decision widely expected to be an non-event. That said, the press conference afterwards will be closely watched for any mentioned of the possibility of the ECB buying bonds (QE or printing money to you and me) and any further developments in the bailout package.

Leading economists continue to be sceptical on the success of the proposed bailout – history is littered with examples of countries receiving money from the IMF and then promptly defaulting.

Whether Greece defaults will increasingly be decided not by their ability to pay, but rather by their willingness to. From pictures reported yesterday of the strikes, and with more planned next week, it looks likely that some sort of debt restructuring will eventually have to be implemented.

Over in the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks today along with Charles Evans (also of the Fed) and both speeches will be closely watched for any changes in tone. With the Dollar rising across the board thanks in part by all the problems affecting the Eurozone, it will be interesting to see if there is any mention of exchange rates, the recovery is still fragile and the Fed will not want to derail this with a large move in USD. In a light data day, we also have US Initial Jobless Claims & UK PMI.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Finds New Lows


 

5 May 2010

Equity markets are getting sold, bond yields rising and the Euro has dropped through the 1.30 level against the Dollar This all ties back to Greece and the ongoing bailout wranglings. Following comments from the IMF and feedback from economists that funding problems could spread through the Eurozone into Portugal, Spain and Italy.

The Spanish Prime Minister was forced to deny talk of his country seeking a financial rescue of about €280bn from its Eurozone partners. Pressure on Spain has been growing since last Wednesday when S&P cut the country’s sovereign rating to AA from AA+ and the spread over German bonds on its 10-year debt has continued to widen. Sterling has pushed to a 9 month high against the euro in spite of the prospect of a hung parliament.

Election fever in the UK is now in full swing. Sterling has held up remarkably well in the run up to E-Day (thank you Greece) and the prospect is for the currency to bounce once it is all over and investors have a clearer sight of the political landscape going forward. Economic data globally is still by and large positive.

So all eyes remain firmly on the euro and Greece and economic data is taking a back foot for now. Contagion remains the big worry and this is what the financial markets are pricing in at the moment.

Report by Tim Lewis

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Trading News – Greece


 

4 May 2010

Hold on tight….its going to be rollercoaster of a week!

After a closer examination of the Greek financials, the €110 billion on the table from the EU and IMF will not be sufficient unless private markets start lending again. In the short term the bailout will mean that Greece will have sufficient cash to repay an €8.5billion that is due in a fortnight, however the suggestion that Greece will be able to raise its own finance by the end of 2011 is optimistic according to bond market specialists.

The first hurdle Greece faces over the coming months is to implement the €30 billion tax rises and budget cuts revealed last week. This has been met with industrial unrest in the capital as government workers shut down schools and hospitals and disrupt flights in response to the austerity measures.

The Euro itself did not respond well to the bailout news yesterday falling more than 1% against the green back to $1.3184 as fears that the fiscal cuts required will be too much for the debt stricken country to bear.

Over to the UK and the Conservatives are maintaining their efforts to win a majority in Thursday’s election. Sterling has been largely unaffected so far although the forecasts for the Pound could be turbulent ahead of the election on swings in voter sentiment but for a bounce in the currency’s fortunes once the result is known …. either Friday or in the case of a close call, early next week. Below is a summary of UK data released earlier today:-

UK PMI data out this morning has come in at 58.0, up from revised 57.3 in March, and better than median forecast of 57.4. Highest read since September 1994.

Elsewhere, March mortgage approvals 48,901 vs 46,882 in February, in line with median forecast 49,000.

Mortgage lending 0.318 bln, down from 1.848 bln in February, and some way short of median forecast of 1.6 bln. Lowest since July 2009.

Consumer credit 0.325 bln, down from 0.578 bln in February, and slightly below median forecast of 0.4 bln. Lowest since December 2009.

Final March M4 money supply +0.2% m/m, +3.6% y/y.

Down under and the RBA raised interest rates again, by 1/4pts to 4.5% with the Dollar maintaining its recent strong showing and the Chinese authorities raised their banks’ Reserve Ratio by 50 basis points to 17% to try and curb domestic lending.

In terms of the rest of the week we have a busy Thursday with the European Central Banks Interest Rate decision, Ben Bernanke’s speech in the US and the UK general election. Friday could possibly see an election result, in addition to a Canadian and US job number, so everyone hold on tight on the rollercoaster week ahead!

Report by Philip Ryan

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Euro Trading News – Downward Pressure


 

28, April 2010

S&P downgraded both Greek and Portuguese debt yesterday, as fears over a fiscal crisis in the Eurozone continued to spread. As the market turns it attention away from the Hellenic Republic towards Portugal, two year Greek bonds are now yielding over 13% as investors offload them and worries over how the downgrade will affect ECB collateral requirements (which were only changed a few weeks back to try to stop this happening) take hold.

The Euro fell to an 11 month low against the Dollar, the historical safe haven currency, and further falls seem likely and would be very welcome in dealing with the deepening sovereign problems throughout the Eurozone. Some commentators are speculating that the ECB could use its ‘nuclear option’ to help debt stricken countries fund themselves. This involves direct purchases by the Central Bank of Government bonds and is akin to printing money, which would put major downside pressure on the Euro.

Sterling has held on to recent gains against the Euro, trading above the key 1.15 level in spite of the continuing fears over a hung parliament. As more uncertainty grips the market over the Eurozone and risk appetite diminishes, Sterling has fallen against the Dollar towards 1.51 and looks likely to continue on this path in the near term.

Stock markets across the globe declined yesterday as the Senate heard Goldman Sachs testimony about the SEC charges levelled against them relating to a synthetic derivative deal they brokered, casuing large losses for several investors including IKB, a German bank. Traders tried to figure out how the case is likely to affect financial markets moving forward and whether more cases of this kind will be brought against financial firms and the deals they did in the lead up the financial crisis in 2007-2008.

Today, all eyes will be on the FOMC interest rate decision and if there is any change in tone from the current dovish stance towards a more hawkish tone. We also have German and Aussie CPI data along with Canadian house prices later this afternoon.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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The Results From Goldman Sachs Shocks Markets


 

21 April, 2010

The results from Goldman Sachs shocked the markets as revenues for the 1st Quarter was $ 1 billion more than estimated. The Greek situation went from bad to worse yesterday with market talk of ever-upwardly spiraling bail-out costs leading to a rise in the country’s debt yields and CDS prices.

The 10-year bond yield broke above 8% for the first time since the Euro’s introduction yesterday and the 5-year CDS level has hit a new high of 476 this morning. With today’s belated start to the IMF/EU investigation likely to last anywhere from 10 – 14 days, there appears little likelihood of positive news over the next few days. True, Greece managed to get away a tranche of 3-month bills into the market but this positive was tempered by the rate that they needed to pay to ensure success – approximately 2 1/2% higher than an equivalent German issue would cost.

The euro has accordingly looked vulnerable, especially given that the US dollar no longer appears to react negatively to positive economic/earnings data from the US. Expect more Euro downside as we approach the end of the month.

Sterling has been the gainer amongst the ‘majors’, picking up against all the others. The ‘hung parliament’ issue is history (for now) and economic data has been buoyant. British consumer price inflation (CPI) rose more than expected yesterday to 3.4% in March from 3% in February against a forecast of 3.2% meaning Mervyn King has yet another letter to write to the treasury. The news of higher inflation raises UK rate rise speculation with the Central Bank acting sooner rather than later although I feel that this interpretation is still tenuous.

Today’s MPC minutes will reveal nothing, the last meeting being too close to the election for anything meaningful not to be interpreted as being political by some faction or other. Tomorrow’s live debate between the 3 leaders will likely prove more interesting for markets with last week’s first offering seen as a bit of a practice run for the ‘Big 2′ and the Lib-Dems probably getting a less easy ride this time.

Yesterday saw the Bank of Canada leave rates steady but come out with a bullish assessment of the economy going forward and as clear a hint as a Central Bank is able to produce, of a rate rise on the 1st June. The CAD surged back below parity to the USD and the AUD reacted in a similar way, strengthening against the US Dollar and testing record highs against the Euro. Both still feature highly in ‘best currencies to be in’ portfolios for the rest of 2010.

A downside for markets was the call from the IMF for the world’s leading economies to impose new taxes on Bank’s balance sheets to pay for the financial clean-up as well as a fresh additional levy on Banks profits and pay.

Report by Tim Lewis

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Nick Clegg’s Performance Leads to Selling The Pound


 

19 April, 2010

Nick Clegg’s strong performance at last weeks televised election debate has seen the smallest of the three parties surge into an unlikely lead in the polls. The You Gov election poll placed the Lib Dem’s on 33% with the Conservatives and Labour on 32% and 26% respectively. This has greatly increased the possibility of a hung parliament and has given traders an excuse to sell the pound. Since the Australian open we have seen GBP/USD fall from 1.5351 to a latest reading of 1.5222.

These negative figures remain despite positive news from the Centre for Economic and Business Research who suggest that the UK economy will expand 1.3% next year, up from 0.8% in previous estimates.

Over to Europe and Greece must surely feel that even the heavens are conspiring against them as the volcanic induced flight chaos equals no Monday/Tuesday meetings between the debt stricken state and EU and IMF representatives.

Markets are speculating that Greece is preparing to request an emergency loan from EU and IMF this week. In spite of the €45bn aid from the EU and IMF, Greece is expected to face complications in reducing their deficit to 8.7% this year and reaching the 3% limit set by the EU by 2012.

On the other side of the pond, we saw continued growth in the manufacturing sector with a better Empire State Manufacturing Index, hitting a 31.9 figure as opposed to expectations of 22.9. This was coupled with notable Housing figures starts climbed 1.6% to 626k annualized rate in March while building permits rose an impressive 7.5% to 685k annualized rate, the highest level since October 2008. However it was not all positive news, with the job’s claimant report which came in at 484K compared to the expectation of 460K.

In terms of the rest of the week, we have a busy week of data starting with UK CPI data out tomorrow, Bank of England minutes and Jobless claims on Wednesday and GDP figures on Friday.

Report by Philip Ryan

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Get Euro Prices


 

16 April, 2010

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou yesterday asked for a meeting with the European Union, the IMF and the ECB, leading to speculation that a bailout is imminent. Talks are to begin in Athens on 19th April. The country’s cost of borrowing from private markets continued to rise, with the yield on Greece’s benchmark 10 year government bond surging to as high as 7.38% yesterday.

Financial markets have shunned Greek debt in recent weeks, despite escalating promises from the EU that they would step in to prevent a default. The euro was the worst performing major currency on these renewed fiscal worries,  so get euro prices now…

In the UK the leaders of the three main political parties held a live televised debate last night. The event did little to clarify the outcome of upcoming election, with sterling still suspect to swings in the opinion polls in the month ahead. Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, shone through in the first of three debates as the parties look to win over undecided voters. There is no UK data of note released today.

US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, reminding investors of the fragility of economic recovery. The US earning season continues next week with Microsoft, American Express Co, and Coca Cola all reporting their latest quarterly results. Analysts expect the combined profit for the S&P 500 companies to increase 30% in the first quarter from a year earlier. The market will turn its attention to today’s release of Housings Starts and the Michigan Consumer Confidence data, with any surprises likely to lead to short term moves in the greenback.

Report by Tim Lewis

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. The Currencies Direct head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

How To Build Your Own Trading System


 

Being told how to build your own trading system is one thing. Being told by a world renown figure such as Jason Fielder is quite another. In this Free Scalping Report he reveals how he has built every system that he has created and then sold.

This is probably the most revealing “behind the scenes” look he’s ever offered to the public so if you seen this complimentary multi-media training, I recommend you do so now.

A photo of a cup of coffee.
Image via Wikipedia

As you no doubt are aware, scalping is the best way to get in and out of the market quickly    while helping yourself to a load of pips while most traders are still sipping coffee.

Of course, you need to know what you are doing. Jason shows you not only his methods but you will learn all you need to know about how you can build your own trading systems too. In addition he shows you…

* How he determines the best time-frames for scalping
(including in-house ACCESS to his proprietary “Hot Time”
indicator)

* Why technical filters alone are not enough (and which
fundamental indicators really matter), PLUS…

* Jason’s Programming Rolodex for getting systems coded and tested

* An indicator which shows you the best times to trade in the market

So go to the Delphi Scalper Website, watch the video and help yourself to the indicator he’s giving out.

You won’t be wasting your time and your future trades will make more sense. No doubt you will profit from it as well.

Good Trading,
Tom

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Learn More About DelphiScalper – The High Probability Scalping System

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance

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Greek Bond Issue Helps Euro – Briefly


 

14 April, 2010

The Greeks smashed their Bond issue sale yesterday and sold €1.6billion in one their most important Treasury bill auctions. The combination of six and twelve month loans surpassed expected demand by €360million. The attractive rates offered at nearly 4.9% gained much interest from short term traders and caused a short rally on the Euro against Sterling and the Dollar.  However, as the afternoon progressed, the markets returned to an unconvinced attitude as concerns crept in on Greece’s overall long term debt issue.

Back to UK and we had a brief Sterling rally yesterday as the ONS stated that Britain’s goods trade gap dropped to £6.179bn in February, an unexpected improvement of close to £1bn. Exports leapt by 9.5% in the same period, the largest rise since Jan ’03. Also, reports of house price rise outnumbered reports of house price decline according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

However, it must be noted the Pound has still given up almost all its gains during the past 24 trading hours with the election’s ubiquitous presence over the currency.

In other market news today we have major figures out in the US with Retail Sales expected to show 1% growth month on month against a 0.3% growth last month. Always considered a significant figure by the markets, as consumer spending equates to approximately 66% of the US’s overall economic activity.

In addition, we have CPI inflation data out, which is expected to be a monthly increase of 0.1% adding to the overall 2.4% annual figure. The Fed will have keen eyes of these figures to obtain a clear indication of any future fiscal policies despite recently saying any interest rate rise is a long way off.

Look for some market volatility around 13.30BST if figures are wider than these expected marks.

Report by Philip Ryan

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. The Currencies Direct head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
BlogCatalog – Finance


 

1st the Greek Financial News


 

12 April, 2010

In a weekend packed full of big stories, Greece yet again dominates the front pages this morning. Eurozone politicians clarified the details of up to €30 Billion in loans at 5%, significantly less than current market rates of 6.98% that will be made available to the Hellenic Republic. Greek officials were quick to point out that there no plans to use the bailout money – with a planned auction of €1.2 billion of Government debt tomorrow.

If, as is likely, there is weak demand or they fail to place the bonds, the Greeks will almost immediately have to go cap in hand to the Eurozone and IMF. The Euro surged on the news, hitting 1.37 against the dollar and 1.1296 against the pound.

It’s a big week on the election front for Sterling. Polls over the weekend now indicate the Tories could claim an outright majority, boosting the pound to an eight week high of 1.5486 against the greenback.

On Thursday we have the first of the eagerly anticipated Leaders debates, focusing on domestic policy. Traders will be looking for more details on the well worn themes of the budget deficit and taxation but also judging the credibility of the parties’ plans and whether they stand up in the face of fierce scrutiny. As the old saying goes, the election won’t be won in these debates, but it could well be lost.

Although trading has been dominated by events on this side of the Atlantic, in the US on Friday US Stocks continued to rally and the positive data flow continued. Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% with January’s figure also revised upwards. We have a busy week of US news, Wednesday sees the release of advanced retails sales, CPI data and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Friday sees new building starts and the University of Michigan Confidence survey.

Sad news from Poland over the weekend. President Lech Kaczynski was killed along with a number of top Polish officials including the Central Bank Governor in a plane crash in western Russia on Saturday.

Report by Alistair Cotton

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

The Pound Good Run Continues


 

31, March 2010

A very good morning for Sterling this morning as the pound hits a one month high against the euro to 1.1268 and it is also up to 1.5150 against the USD.

The reason for the move higher has been attributed to the upward revision in 2009 Q4 GDP to 0.4% from 0.3%. However I feel there is a certain amount of profit taking after the dumping of sterling in the last few weeks. The FT highlighted that hedge funds were shorting sterling and we are now probably seeing profit taking from this leading to a squeeze higher.

The gains in Sterling come despite the fact that consumer confidence for the UK in March fell by one point to -15 after two consecutive months of improvement. The dip in confidence has been blamed on intense media focus on the state of the UK’s finances and the increasing likelihood of a minority government.

Sterling will also have edged higher against the euro following data showing that Eurozone unemployment hit 10% in February. This is the highest since data started! More doom and gloom for the euro which is struggling to get above 1.35 and could face more downside pressure.

Nothing hugely relevant for the rest of the day. We have the Tankan survey on economic conditions in Japan released overnight. If the news is not positive from Japan we could see more selling pressure on the Yen which has started to unwind against most major currencies.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 

IMF Helps Euro In The Short Term


 

29, March 2010

Last week the big news was the agreement of a Franco-German proposal involving the IMF to assist Greece has lifted the euro in the short term, but is unlikely to be good news for the currency in the longer term.

Although the bailout was welcomed by the financial markets, the news of the IMF’s involvement was not good for the euro. What we are seeing at the moment is a relief rally, with the euro being bought on the fact that a proposal has finally been agreed, rather than on the specific details it contains.

The financial aid proposed is limited by the need for unanimous decisions by euro member states, on the basis of assessments carried out by the European commission and the European Central Bank. This means the financial markets will remain cautious about the euro’s prospects until they see evidence of the system working in practice.

For the UK we have seen mortgage lending numbers come in better than expected at 2.1bln against the forecast of 1.8bln. This has helped the pound nudge higher against the US dollar towards 1.50 again. The rate is also pushing higher on the back of improved market sentiment following the EU summit. The FT has reported that various hedge funds have profited heavily on selling sterling recently. This could leave the door open for some profit taking on the upside to re-test 1.52. This week we have revised GDP from Q4 2009 and consumer confidence data and PMI numbers for the UK in a 4 day week.

Elsewhere there has been further hawkish comments from down under as RBA chief Glenn Stevens discusses the pressure for further tightening…this will raise the prospect of a rise in rates next week and is in relation to rising house prices. We could see further gains in the AUD against the major currencies on the back of these comments and if we see a rate hike next week.

Report by Phil McHugh

Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir

Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.

Currencies Direct & Forex trading

Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only.

BlogCatalog – Finance


 
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